中國可以顛覆伊隆·馬斯克的可再生能源之夢China Could Upend Elon Musk's RenewableEnergy Dreams
Elon Musk has as much as $10 billion, not to mention his own personalfortune, riding on the growth of TeslaMotors (NASDAQ: TSLA ) EV salesandSolarCity's (NASDAQ: SCTY ) solar and energy storage systemgrowth. It's one of the biggest bets ever made on renewable energy and it'smade him a household name across the country.
伊隆 馬斯克有著上百億美金資產(chǎn),，更不用說其個人資產(chǎn),，飛速增長的特斯拉電動汽車的銷量還有太陽城公司的太陽能及能源存儲系統(tǒng)的增長了，這是有史以來在可再生能源上所下的最大的賭注之一,，因此這使他在全國范圍內(nèi)變得家喻戶曉,。
To dominate EVs, solar energy, and energy storage Musk is trying to build outbattery capacity before competitors can gain traction, and thus far he'sexecuted well on that strategy. There's really only one place with theresources and wherewithal to derail Musk's hopes to dominate both EVs andenergy storage -- China. The problem is that they may be doing just that.
馬斯克試圖在競爭對手發(fā)力之前增加電池容量，以此控制電動汽車,、太陽能和能源儲存領(lǐng)域,，迄今為止，他的這一戰(zhàn)略執(zhí)行良好,。只有一個真正擁有資源和資金地方,，可以破壞馬斯克的希望控制電動汽車和儲能的愿望——中國，現(xiàn)在的問題是,，他們可能會這么做的。
China betting big on electric vehicles
中國在電動汽車領(lǐng)域下了很大的賭注
The latest rumor out of China is that the country will levy a hefty gas tax andpour the revenue generated into expanding electric vehicle usage in thecountry. This could add billions to an industry that's already being supportedby a government that's purchasing EVs for its own use in mass. In many ways,the concept makes sense for China's future and follows a path the country hastaken in the past.
最近從中國傳出的謠傳,，即這個國家將征收高額汽油稅并把產(chǎn)生的收入投入在電動汽車上,。政府已經(jīng)大規(guī)模使用并支持電動汽車，這使得該行業(yè)增加了數(shù)十億美元的投入,。在許多方面,，遵照國家指定的道路的這個概念對中國的未來很有意義,。
Chinese cities are congested with smog from everything from coal electricplants to the amount of gas burned by the growing middle class. So, there's anenvironmental driver for EVs.
中國城市煙霧繚繞，不斷壯大中產(chǎn)階級的的消費使得從煤炭發(fā)電廠中燃燒出了大量氣體,。所以,，這里有一個對電動汽車的環(huán)境驅(qū)動力。
But China also likes to be an early mover in new industries, particularly whenlarge scale manufacturing is involved. EVs and batteries could be a huge growthmarket for China over the next few decades, and it's only logical that theywould make a push into being a major supplier for the industry. China has usedstate-run banks to build out capacity in industries it wants to dominate, likeelectronics and solar, and I think batteries could be next, but I'll cover thatbelow.
但中國也喜歡在新產(chǎn)業(yè),，特別是在大規(guī)模生產(chǎn)上做先行者,。電動汽車和電池市場在未來幾十年可能會有一個巨大的增長，唯一合乎邏輯的是,，他們會盡最大的努力成為這個行業(yè)的主要供應商,。中國國有銀行被用來支持構(gòu)建它想占主導的行業(yè)的能力，如電子和太陽能,，我認為電池可能是下一個,，如下我將介紹。
The biggest driver of China's push into EVs could be the country's growingreliance on foreign oil. You can see below that the gap between China's oilproduction and consumption is growing each year and it now has to deal withcountries like Iraq, Iran, and Syria just to meet its energyneeds.
中國推進電動汽車的最大驅(qū)動力可能是因為該國對外國石油的依賴,。下面你可以看到,，中國年年增長的石油生產(chǎn)和消費之間的差距，其現(xiàn)在不得不處理這些國家的事物,，如伊拉克,、伊朗和敘利亞只是為了滿足其能源需求。
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If EVs can reduce China's reliance on foreign oil it would be logical to pushtheir adoption. The economic benefits would be a side effect of the improvedenergy security, something China's leaders have to be considering at themoment.
如果電動汽車可以減少中國對外國石油的依賴,，那么推動該領(lǐng)域的就是符合邏輯的了,。經(jīng)濟效益將是提高能源安全的一個副作用，這是中國領(lǐng)導人必須考慮的問題,。
Why this is a problem for Elon Musk
為什么這對馬斯克會是個麻煩
You may think that China's expansion into EVs would be good for Tesla and onsome levels that would be right. It would open up a new market for the Model S,Model X, and future Model 3, something that could be a positive forTesla.
你可能認為中國在電動汽車上的擴張將有利于特斯拉,，這在某種程度上是正確的。它將為Model S,， Model X,,，還有未來的 Model 3（譯者注：特斯拉車型）打開一個新的市場，有一些對特斯拉是有積極意義的,。
But if China decides to pour billions of dollars into electric vehicles andbattery manufacturing it could be devastating for Tesla. Musk is spending $5billion to build battery capacity at the Gigafactory in Nevada, and he now hasto find end market demand for not only cars but batteries as well.
但如果中國決定將數(shù)十億美元投入電動汽車和電池制造,，那么這對特斯拉可能是毀滅性的。馬斯克在內(nèi)華達州花費了50億美元建造的生產(chǎn)電池的超級工廠,，而且他現(xiàn)在必須找到終端市場需求,，而不能僅僅是汽車電池。
Part of the logic in building the Gigafactory was to lower costs and make EVsand energy storage more competitive in the market. But if China floods themarket with low-cost product it could reduce Tesla's potential margin frombatteries and create a competitor both in EVs and energy storage. It'ssomething the country has done before in renewable energy.
有一部分人的邏輯是建設(shè)超級工廠可以降低成本并使電動汽車和能源儲存在市場中變得更具競爭力,。但如果中國以低成本的產(chǎn)品充斥市場,，就可以降低特斯拉在電池產(chǎn)業(yè)上的潛在利潤，并形成一個在電動汽車和儲能上競爭對手,。這是該國在可再生能源上已經(jīng)做過的事,。
China has played this game before
中國以前就玩過這招
This isn't some far fetched idea I'm making up to scare Tesla or SolarCityinvestors, it's something we've seen play out before.
這不是我用一些不靠譜的想法來嚇唬特斯拉或超級工廠的投資者,，我們以前就看過這出。
In the late 90s and 2000s when China decided it wanted to be a computingpowerhouse the country's state-run banks poured billions of dollars intobuilding out manufacturing capacity to compete with U.S. companies. Eventually,PC manufacturers in the U.S. either went bankrupt, sold to Chinese competitors,or decided to outsource electronics manufacturing to China. When China wantssomething -- it gets it.
在90年代末和2000年左右,，當中國決定想成為計算強國的時候,，中國國有銀行投入了數(shù)十億美元以建設(shè)其生產(chǎn)能力并與美國公司競爭。最終,，個人電制造商們就在美國破產(chǎn)了,，或被賣給了中國的競爭對手，或決定把電子制造業(yè)外包給中國,。當中國想要某個東西——它就會得到它,。
More recently, the solar industry was upended by a massive expansion in Chinesecapacity, funded by Chinese state-run banks. Billions poured into the market,flooding the solar industry with product and pushing out suppliers that didn'thave the cost structure or financial backing to keep up. Most U.S. and Europeansolar manufacturers went bankrupt leaving Chinese suppliers like YingliGreen Energy and Trina Solar who are supported by Chinese banksto this day.
最近，太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)被中國的大規(guī)模擴張能力顛覆了,，中國國有銀行將數(shù)十億美元如洪水般的傾倒入市場,，將那些沒有成本結(jié)構(gòu)或資金支持的太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)與產(chǎn)品供應商擠出市場。大多數(shù)美國和歐洲的太陽能制造商因此破產(chǎn),，使得中國供應商如英利綠色能源和天合光能等由中國的銀行所支持的公司存在至今,。
If China decides to put billions into building out EV capacity -- particularlybatteries -- it would put downward pressure on costs that currently don'texist. If China does make the investment in EVs that's been rumored, we couldsee a similar dynamic to what happened in the solar industry in the late 2000sand early 2010s. Investors had put huge multiples on solar companies, and whenChina flooded the market the stocks collapsed as U.S. companies struggled tosurvive under the pressure.
如果中國決定投入數(shù)十億美元建設(shè)其電動汽車產(chǎn)能，尤其是電池產(chǎn)業(yè),，這將壓低成本,，而這種情況目前尚不存在。如果中國在電動汽車的投資是謠言,，我們可以看到在太陽能產(chǎn)業(yè)在2000年代末和2010年代初類似的動態(tài)發(fā)展,。投資者把巨量的資金投入到太陽能公司中，當中國涌入市場時,，股市崩潰了,，美國公司在壓力下掙扎求生。
Here's a small snapshot of happened to solar investors from 2008-2012 -- andthese are two companies that survived. Many more went bankrupt because ofChinese oversupply.
這里有一個從2008年到2012年發(fā)生在太陽能投資者身上的小圖,，僅有兩個公司幸存下來,，更多的破產(chǎn)了，因為中國的產(chǎn)能過剩,。
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China is the threat Elon Musk should be watching
中國威脅馬斯克應該被關(guān)注
Anytime I see that China is going to put billions into an industry I cringe atthe effect it will have on U.S. companies. Without some sort of technologicaladvantage over Chinese competitors it becomes a price war, even for a companylike Tesla.
每當我看到中國將投入數(shù)十億美元投入到一個行業(yè),，我會害怕它對美國公司的影響。如果我們沒有某種對中國競爭對手的技術(shù)優(yōu)勢,，那么就會變?yōu)閮r格戰(zhàn),，甚至對于像特斯拉這樣的高技術(shù)公司也是一樣的。
Remember that a significant percentage of capacity (around 30%-40%) in Tesla'splant is earmarked for energy storage for SolarCity. But if Tesla's batteriesaren't cost competitive with Chinese commodity batteries it would be acompetitive disadvantage for SolarCity to stay with Tesla
要知道,，相當比例的能力(約30% - -40%)在特斯拉的這家超級工廠中被用于能量儲存方面,。但如果特斯拉的電池不能與中國商品電池在價格上取得優(yōu)勢，那么超級工廠和特斯拉在一起就會處在競爭劣勢。
At the very least, this is a threat worth watching for investors. Both TeslaMotors and SolarCity are priced as if they'll grow profitably for years tocome, but if China decides it wants to own EVs or the future of batterymanufacturing it could be terrible for both companies. China has done thisbefore, and I wouldn't bet against them doing it again.
至少,，這是投資者值得關(guān)注的一個威脅。特斯拉汽車和太陽城的定價好像顯示他們在未來幾年內(nèi)將盈利增長,，但是,，如果中國決定要自己的電動車或未來電池制造業(yè)，這對于兩家公司來講可能是可怕的,。中國已經(jīng)這樣做過,，我不會賭他們不會再做一遍。
Travis Hoium has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Foolrecommends SolarCity and Tesla Motors. The Motley Fool owns shares of SolarCityand Tesla Motors. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believethat considering a diverse range of insights makes us betterinvestors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
霍伊姆對任何股票均無立場,，The Motley Fool 推薦太陽城和特斯拉汽車的股票,，The Motley Fool 自己也擁有所推薦的太陽城和特斯拉汽車的股份，試試我們的傻瓜式的通訊服務,，免費30天,！我們網(wǎng)站的人員可能并非所有人都持有相同的觀點，但我們都相信,，四處撒網(wǎng),，總有能中的 。 The Motley Fool 擁有信息披露政策,。（譯者注：這是TheMotley Fool 網(wǎng)站文章,，The Motley Fool 是 美國知名的投資網(wǎng)站 ）
發(fā)表于 2014-9-18 08:15:39
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